The US will regain its status as a net importer of petroleum and petroleum products. Within the third quarter of 2020 and remain a net importer in most months. Through the top of the forecast period. The US Energy Information Administration said in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook.
The forecast may be a result of higher net imports of petroleum. And lower net exports of petroleum products. Net petroleum imports are expected to extend because. As US petroleum production declines, there’ll be fewer bbl available for export. On the petroleum product side. Net exports are going to be lowest within the third quarter of 2020. When US refinery runs are expected to say no significantly.
It is noteworthy that EIA’s forecasts within the outlook were made assuming. No re-implementation of an OPEC+ agreement during the forecast period. If there’s ultimately an agreement, the forecast will incorporate that information into its ensuing release, EIA said.
US Working Gas
The total US working gas in storage ended March at 2.0 tcf, 17% quite the 5-year (2015-19) average. within the forecast, inventories rise by 1.9 tcf during. The April through October injection season to succeed in almost 3.9 tcf on Oct. 31. US LNG exports are expected. To average 6.6 bcf/d within the second quarter of 2020 and 6.0 bcf/d within the third quarter of 2020. LNG exports in third-quarter 2020 are 0.3 bcf/d lower compared with the March STEO forecast. Due to lower expected global demand for gas.
Brent petroleum prices averaged $32/bbl in March, a decrease of $24/bbl. From the typical in February and therefore the lowest monthly average since January 2016. EIA forecasts Brent petroleum prices will average $33/bbl in 2020, $10/bbl less than in last month’s STEO and down from a mean of $64/bbl in 2019. Average Brent prices will rise to a mean of $46/bbl in 2021, $10/bbl less than forecast last month, as a return to declining global oil inventories puts upward pressure on prices.
Total US working gas in storage ended March at 2.0 tcf, 17% quite the 5-year (2015-19) average. within the forecast, inventories rise by 1.9 tcf during the April through October injection season to succeed in almost 3.9 tcf on Oct. 31. US LNG exports are expected to average 6.6 bcf/d within the second quarter of 2020 and 6.0 bcf/d within the third quarter of 2020. LNG exports in third-quarter 2020 are 0.3 bcf/d lower compared with the March STEO forecast due to lower expected global demand for gas .